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2018年成都初升高录取线所想到的…

发布者: 老罗 | 发布时间: 2018-10-10 11:19| 查看数: 1563| 评论数: 13|帖子模式

成都市中考最重要的录取——第二批次省二级及以上示范校录取已经完成。录取线一公布,几家欢乐几家愁。很多人从录取线看到一些意外,但相信也会看到一些必然。

一、2016到2018年录取线情况
成都市省二级以上示范性普通高中
2016-2018第二批次录取线
640.jpg

二、分析:
从以上录取线我们可以看到:每一年都会出现个别学校录取线相对自己的实力偏低或偏高的情况,但在今年出现这样情况的学校稍微有点多,究其原因,我们认为有以下因素:
1、成外实外等民办学校扩招,给部分学生进入优质学校就读的机会,部分考生放弃公办而选择了民办学校就读;

23.jpg
(以上数据来自学校官网)

我们通过以上可以看到民办学校对外校学生招生条件在放宽,所以导致部分560甚至580的考生放弃公办学校,选择民办学校。但从成外、实外自主招生考试现场参考人数远不如往年看,高分段考生选择民办的意愿在下降,同时这也是规范民办学校招生把民办学校自主招生放在中考后的一种必然结果。

2、市级指标到校生分配方式改变及部分市级指标到校生中考成绩相对不是太理想,通过中考填报志愿的优生相比往年要多一点
(1)指标到校生对新六区进行分配,5+2区域名额减少,导致部分按以前分配方式可以拿到4、7、9三校七区及师大附中的5+2区域考生拿不到,只能通过中考填报志愿方式及艺体方式进入三校七区及师大附中,加大了竞争难度;
(2)成都从2017年开始严格规范小升初择校,择校生无指标到校生资格,而小升初择校生成绩相对优秀,中考成绩相对较好,这部分学生参加中考这也加大了竞争难度;
(3)今年市级指标到校生考试成绩相对不是很理想,估计相对集中在570到600之间。

A:部分分数段统计人数及录取学校:
234234.jpg
从以上数据我们可以看到2017年600分所位次对应2018年的成绩不到595分。

546456.png
B:部分学校最近两年招生计划、5+2区域中考报名以及户口在这个区域的参考人数:

324324324.jpg
从以上数据可以看到:三校七区、师大附中、七中万达、石室天府及七中八一的招生计划没有改变,同时在5+2区域报名中考且户口也属这个区域的考生在相对减少,扣除三校七区及师大附中分到新六区的125人指标到校生对录取线的影响,而这些学校实际录取线相对仍有所提升。估计在600分以上的市级指标到校生相对人数比2017年有所减少,而在600分以上中考填报志愿考生人数增加。

4、部分学校出现断档,估计是由于这部分学校最近几年高考成绩比较优秀同时也是热点学校,导致部分家长对填报该学校没有信心,但这些学校实际在一定的分数下录取的人数不多,如2017年树德外国语校区在610以下只录取了不到4人,但录取线就是600分。估计今年铁中,盐道街中学等也是这样情况,据当时咨询情况分析盐道街中学在580以下录取人数估计应该不到10人,铁中在575以下录取人数估计应该不到10人。但类学校的文化底蕴及沉淀是得到很多家长的认可的,特别是盐道街中学、铁中目前正凭借上省一级示范校的势头内部挖潜,无论在今年高考和今年高二零诊中都取得了骄人成绩,说明依然是值得信赖的学校。

5、新六区优质学校进到5+2区域招生,对部分考生及家长是有吸引力的,对5+2区域的学校有一定的影响。但影响目前还不太大,可以从以下数据看到:

6575645654.png
今年新六区的6所学校加入到5+2城区统招,统招计划282人,二批次实际招收72人,招收率25%;剩余计划210,剩余率75%。

新六区学校的加入,对5+2城区今年的二批次招生影响低于预期。

6、补录学校增加,补录招生计划增加对重点线左右及普高线上的考生是利好,增加了他们的录取机会,也增加了部分普高线上考生进到省二级及以上示范校的机会。
213213421.png
补录学校增加,新六区学校全在征集志愿中。

7、部分学校由于硬件设施、管理有所提升,家长认可度在提升,所以录取线得到提高。列五中学2018年回迁到新校区上课,办学环境得到大幅度提升,家长认可度高,录取线超过了川大附中。科大实验新校区投入使用,加上电子科大对学校帮扶力度大,办学业绩提升快,社会认可度高,所以录取线稳定,排名也超过了很多知名学校。

8、部分560到590的考生选择到了绵阳等地市州的优质学校就读。
整体来看,随着指标到校规则的变化适应、民办学校的新招和扩招,将会有越来越多的非尖子生实现就读普高的意愿。同时,479名校的优质生源将得以继续保持。
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